IB mocks, predicted grades and the university offer, in the order they actually happen

The offer says a 6 in Math. The last test said a 4. And somewhere in the next few months a teacher writes a number on a form that universities will read before your child has sat a single real paper. Many parents only learn the order of these events once some of them have passed. Here it is.

September to November: predicted grades

Predicted grades are set by the subject teacher and submitted by the school. For UK applications through UCAS, the early deadline for Oxford, Cambridge, medicine, dentistry and veterinary courses falls in mid-October, so those predictions are finalised in September or early October. Predictions for the main UCAS deadline in late January are usually finalised between October and December. Applications to the Netherlands, the US and elsewhere have their own dates, but the school's prediction goes into all of them.

What the teacher uses: the end-of-year exam from the first year, tests so far this term, the state of the IA, and their judgement of trajectory. What you can influence at this point is small but real: a visibly better test in September or October, and a conversation with the teacher that shows the student has a plan. Ask two questions of the coordinator now, in writing: on what date are Math predictions submitted, and will they be revised after the mocks?

If the prediction is already in and lower than the offer needs, it is not over. The prediction shapes which offers arrive. The offer, once it exists, is conditional on the final grade in July. Read on.

December to February: the mocks

Most schools sit full mock papers between early December and mid-February. In Math AA SL that means a Paper 1 (90 minutes, no calculator) and a Paper 2 (90 minutes, calculator), usually on real past papers, marked to the real scheme.

The mock matters for three separate reasons, and parents often only see one of them:

1. It is the last evidence before predictions are revised. Schools that submit in January, and schools that revise, use it directly.
2. It is the first time the whole syllabus is tested at once. Everything before it was a topic test. A student who is a 5 on topic tests and a 4 on the mock may know each topic but struggle to hold the whole syllabus at once, and that is worth knowing in January rather than May.
3. It sets the target for the final stretch. The gap between the mock and the required grade, in marks, is the plan for February to May.

Working backwards from the mock date is one of the most useful things a parent can do in the autumn. If the mock is in the second week of January, the syllabus needs to be back in place by mid-December, which means starting in October rather than in the Christmas holidays.

February to April: the final stretch

Predicted grades are done. Offers are arriving. The only number left to move is the real one. This is past-paper season: full papers under timed conditions, marked, mistakes sorted by type, weak topics re-taught, repeat. A student who has the syllabus in place by the mock spends these weeks gaining marks. A student who does not spends much of them still learning content, with less time left to practise it.

May: the exams

The published IB schedule for the May 2027 session runs from Friday 23 April to Tuesday 18 May. Mathematics Analysis and Approaches SL Paper 1 is listed for the morning of Thursday 13 May 2027 and Paper 2 for Friday 14 May 2027, back to back. Local start times depend on the school's time zone, and the school holds the official timetable, so confirm both dates there. Two papers on consecutive days leaves little time between them, so both need to be ready at the same time.

July: results and the condition

IB results are released in early July. Universities then confirm or reject conditional offers, usually within days. Where a grade misses the condition by one, some universities still confirm, some ask for the other subjects, some do not. Where it misses by more, the conversation is about a retake in the November session or a different route (see switching and retakes).

What a parent can still influence, by month

When	What is being decided	What you can do
September to October	Early predictions	Get the dates in writing. Get one better test on record. Sort out what is actually wrong (the three usual causes).
October to December	Main predictions; syllabus back in place	Fix the format if the grade is flat. Fixed practice evenings. One full paper under conditions before the holidays.
January to February	Mocks, revised predictions	Timed papers only. Mark breakdown by question. Ask the teacher to revise the prediction if the mock justifies it.
February to April	The real grade	Past papers, mistake log, weak-topic repair (the eight-week plan works for finals too).
May	The papers	Sleep, the calculator charged and in the right mode, the formula booklet familiar.

The most useful evidence at every stage

At every point on this timeline, the clearest picture of where your child stands comes from a full paper done under timed conditions and properly marked. Homework, topic tests and the tutor's view all help, but they test less at once. If your child has not sat a full timed paper since June, that is a good first thing to arrange, whatever month it is. What moving that number by two grades involves is in from a 4 to a 6.